Equity Profile

RITM

Rithm Capital Corp.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$5.8B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) operates in the financial sector, specifically in mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance. Investors will be looking for growth or stability in earnings.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to generate income from its investments in mortgage assets.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RITM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) operates in the financial sector, specifically in mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs). The company plays a crucial role in the housing market by investing in mortgage-related assets, which can be affected by interest rates and housing demand.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.94%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Rithm Capital reported an EPS of $0.51, slightly missing the estimate of $0.53. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Rithm Capital has shown a history of beating EPS estimates but recently missed in the last quarter. Investors are cautious about the upcoming report.

Bull Case

If Rithm Capital can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss estimates or shows signs of declining revenue, it could lead to further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent miss in Q1-2026, the market will closely watch for signs of recovery or continued weakness in earnings.

What is the company's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters?

Revenue growth is critical for Rithm Capital's sustainability as a mortgage REIT, and any guidance on future performance will be key for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Rithm Capital's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, as historical performance shows a tendency to recover quickly after a setback.

Supporting Evidence

The company's history shows a 75% EPS beat rate, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, which may reflect investor sentiment that is more optimistic than the current consensus.

Key Risk

If the EPS exceeds $0.55, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a recent earnings miss, and the market is looking for signs of improvement or further decline.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher would confirm a bullish outlook and suggest recovery in earnings.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would reinforce concerns about declining performance and could lead to a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.55%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 9.55%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while RITM has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.5%

Calls (7K)P/C Ratio: 2.10Puts (42K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Rithm Capital beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.47%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the market.

Miss

Should the company miss again, history indicates a potential decline of about 0.66%, which could heighten concerns among investors.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any guidance on future revenue growth and market conditions affecting mortgage rates.
2Details on the company's investment strategy and asset performance in the current economic environment.
3Updates on dividend payouts and any changes to the company's capital allocation strategy.
4Management's commentary on the competitive landscape and how it plans to navigate challenges.
5Insights into any operational efficiencies or cost-cutting measures being implemented.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) operates in the financial sector, specifically in mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance. Investors will be looking for growth or stability in earnings.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to generate income from its investments in mortgage assets.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RITM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.94%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Rithm Capital reported an EPS of $0.51, slightly missing the estimate of $0.53. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Rithm Capital has shown a history of beating EPS estimates but recently missed in the last quarter. Investors are cautious about the upcoming report.

Bull Case

If Rithm Capital can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss estimates or shows signs of declining revenue, it could lead to further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent miss in Q1-2026, the market will closely watch for signs of recovery or continued weakness in earnings.

What is the company's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters?

Revenue growth is critical for Rithm Capital's sustainability as a mortgage REIT, and any guidance on future performance will be key for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Rithm Capital's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, as historical performance shows a tendency to recover quickly after a setback.

Supporting Evidence

The company's history shows a 75% EPS beat rate, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, which may reflect investor sentiment that is more optimistic than the current consensus.

Key Risk

If the EPS exceeds $0.55, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a recent earnings miss, and the market is looking for signs of improvement or further decline.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher would confirm a bullish outlook and suggest recovery in earnings.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would reinforce concerns about declining performance and could lead to a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.55%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 9.55%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while RITM has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.5%

Calls (7K)P/C Ratio: 2.10Puts (42K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Rithm Capital beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.47%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the market.

Miss

Should the company miss again, history indicates a potential decline of about 0.66%, which could heighten concerns among investors.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any guidance on future revenue growth and market conditions affecting mortgage rates.
2Details on the company's investment strategy and asset performance in the current economic environment.
3Updates on dividend payouts and any changes to the company's capital allocation strategy.
4Management's commentary on the competitive landscape and how it plans to navigate challenges.
5Insights into any operational efficiencies or cost-cutting measures being implemented.