Equity Profile

RITM

Rithm Capital Corp.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$5.2B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in various mortgage-related assets....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its operations and generate income, essential for sustaining dividends.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RITM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in various mortgage-related assets. As part of the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in the housing market, making it important for investors to understand its performance, especially in a fluctuating interest rate environment.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.94%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Rithm Capital reported an EPS of $0.51, slightly missing the estimate of $0.53. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on optimizing the mortgage portfolio.
Commitment to maintaining dividend payouts.
Plans to explore new investment opportunities in the mortgage space.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations are mixed as Rithm Capital has shown a tendency to beat EPS estimates in the past. However, recent performance raises concerns about sustaining growth.

Bull Case

If Rithm Capital can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or increase its dividend payout, it could attract more investors and boost stock prices.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of declining profitability, it could lead to further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to the previous quarter?

Given the recent EPS miss, investors will closely watch if the company can rebound and meet or exceed expectations.

How will Rithm Capital manage its dividend payout in light of recent earnings performance?

Investors rely on dividends for income, and any changes could significantly impact investor sentiment and stock price.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Rithm Capital's ability to rebound from its recent EPS miss, as historical patterns suggest a strong recovery potential.

Supporting Evidence

Rithm has a 75% EPS beat rate historically, indicating a strong chance of exceeding expectations.

Options are pricing a 9.55% move, suggesting that investors are bracing for volatility, which could lead to a larger reaction than anticipated.

The company's commitment to maintaining dividends may provide a buffer against stock price declines.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.55, it could shift the narrative and lead to a bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a recent EPS miss, and the market will be watching closely for signs of recovery or further decline.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.55%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while RITM has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.5%

Calls (7K)P/C Ratio: 2.10Puts (42K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Rithm Capital beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.47%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.66%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the mortgage portfolio performance and expected impacts on revenue.
2Management's commentary on dividend sustainability and future payout plans.
3Insights into market conditions affecting mortgage rates and demand.
4Details on new investment opportunities being explored by the company.
5Any changes to management's strategic priorities in response to recent earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in various mortgage-related assets....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its operations and generate income, essential for sustaining dividends.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RITM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.94%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Rithm Capital reported an EPS of $0.51, slightly missing the estimate of $0.53. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on optimizing the mortgage portfolio.
Commitment to maintaining dividend payouts.
Plans to explore new investment opportunities in the mortgage space.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations are mixed as Rithm Capital has shown a tendency to beat EPS estimates in the past. However, recent performance raises concerns about sustaining growth.

Bull Case

If Rithm Capital can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or increase its dividend payout, it could attract more investors and boost stock prices.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of declining profitability, it could lead to further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to the previous quarter?

Given the recent EPS miss, investors will closely watch if the company can rebound and meet or exceed expectations.

How will Rithm Capital manage its dividend payout in light of recent earnings performance?

Investors rely on dividends for income, and any changes could significantly impact investor sentiment and stock price.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Rithm Capital's ability to rebound from its recent EPS miss, as historical patterns suggest a strong recovery potential.

Supporting Evidence

Rithm has a 75% EPS beat rate historically, indicating a strong chance of exceeding expectations.

Options are pricing a 9.55% move, suggesting that investors are bracing for volatility, which could lead to a larger reaction than anticipated.

The company's commitment to maintaining dividends may provide a buffer against stock price declines.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.55, it could shift the narrative and lead to a bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a recent EPS miss, and the market will be watching closely for signs of recovery or further decline.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.55%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while RITM has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.5%

Calls (7K)P/C Ratio: 2.10Puts (42K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Rithm Capital beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.47%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.66%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the mortgage portfolio performance and expected impacts on revenue.
2Management's commentary on dividend sustainability and future payout plans.
3Insights into market conditions affecting mortgage rates and demand.
4Details on new investment opportunities being explored by the company.
5Any changes to management's strategic priorities in response to recent earnings.