Equity Profile

RTX

RTX Corporation

IndustrialsAerospace & Defense$296.5B

Jul21Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

RTX Corporation operates in the aerospace and defense sector, providing advanced technologies and services for commercial and military applications. With a market cap of $297 billion, the company plays a crucial role in global defense and aviation, which are vital for national security and economic growth.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

$1.66

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and indicates overall business performance.

$22.8B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RTX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, RTX reported an EPS of $1.78, significantly beating expectations by 17.03%. Despite the strong earnings, the stock fell 4.40% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect RTX to continue its strong performance with an EPS of $1.66 and revenue of $22.8 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth in defense spending.

Bull Case

If RTX meets or exceeds expectations, it could signal strong demand in the aerospace and defense sectors, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of declining revenue or missed earnings could raise concerns about the company's future growth prospects, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.66

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$22.8B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and indicates overall business performance.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will RTX's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $22.8 billion?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's market position and future prospects, especially in a competitive sector.

What insights will management provide regarding defense spending trends?

Understanding management's view on defense budgets can indicate future revenue streams and overall market health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate RTX's ability to capitalize on increased defense spending, as recent geopolitical tensions have led to higher budgets.

Supporting Evidence

RTX has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected performance.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

The defense sector is experiencing increased demand, which could benefit RTX more than analysts predict.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $22.5 billion, it could undermine confidence in the company's growth narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether RTX can sustain its growth trajectory amidst fluctuating defense budgets and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings exceeding $1.66 per share and revenue surpassing $22.8 billion would confirm strong demand and growth.

Bear Confirmed If

Falling short of the $22.8 billion revenue target could signal weakening demand and raise concerns about future performance.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.39%

Historical Avg

±4.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while RTX has averaged ±4.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.1%

Calls (770K)P/C Ratio: 0.40Puts (328K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +1.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If RTX beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.77%, confirming strong demand in the aerospace sector.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a significant decline, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of around 4.79%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on defense contracts or government spending trends.
2Insights into supply chain challenges and how they are being managed.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Details on new product developments or technological advancements.
5Comments on international sales and any geopolitical impacts.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

$1.66

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and indicates overall business performance.

$22.8B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RTX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, RTX reported an EPS of $1.78, significantly beating expectations by 17.03%. Despite the strong earnings, the stock fell 4.40% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect RTX to continue its strong performance with an EPS of $1.66 and revenue of $22.8 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth in defense spending.

Bull Case

If RTX meets or exceeds expectations, it could signal strong demand in the aerospace and defense sectors, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of declining revenue or missed earnings could raise concerns about the company's future growth prospects, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.66

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$22.8B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and indicates overall business performance.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will RTX's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $22.8 billion?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's market position and future prospects, especially in a competitive sector.

What insights will management provide regarding defense spending trends?

Understanding management's view on defense budgets can indicate future revenue streams and overall market health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate RTX's ability to capitalize on increased defense spending, as recent geopolitical tensions have led to higher budgets.

Supporting Evidence

RTX has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected performance.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

The defense sector is experiencing increased demand, which could benefit RTX more than analysts predict.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $22.5 billion, it could undermine confidence in the company's growth narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether RTX can sustain its growth trajectory amidst fluctuating defense budgets and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings exceeding $1.66 per share and revenue surpassing $22.8 billion would confirm strong demand and growth.

Bear Confirmed If

Falling short of the $22.8 billion revenue target could signal weakening demand and raise concerns about future performance.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.39%

Historical Avg

±4.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while RTX has averaged ±4.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.1%

Calls (770K)P/C Ratio: 0.40Puts (328K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If RTX beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.77%, confirming strong demand in the aerospace sector.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a significant decline, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of around 4.79%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on defense contracts or government spending trends.
2Insights into supply chain challenges and how they are being managed.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Details on new product developments or technological advancements.
5Comments on international sales and any geopolitical impacts.