Equity Profile

SA

Seabridge Gold Inc.

MaterialsGold$3.7B

Aug12Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Seabridge Gold Inc. is a gold exploration and development company focused on acquiring and advancing gold projects in North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Gold Production Estimates

Understanding production levels is crucial as they directly impact revenue and profitability.

N/A

Cost per Ounce of Gold

This metric helps gauge operational efficiency and profitability, especially in a volatile gold market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Seabridge Gold Inc. is a gold exploration and development company focused on acquiring and advancing gold projects in North America. With a market cap of $4 billion, it plays a significant role in the materials sector, particularly as gold prices fluctuate due to economic conditions and investor sentiment.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-129.02%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.49%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Seabridge reported an EPS of -$0.04, matching analyst expectations but reflecting ongoing challenges. The stock saw a modest increase of 1.25% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the company's historical performance and the current gold market dynamics. However, past earnings misses raise concerns about future profitability.

Bull Case

If Seabridge can demonstrate improved production efficiency and lower costs, it could significantly enhance investor confidence and drive the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or higher-than-expected costs, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the updated production estimates for the upcoming quarters?

Production levels will significantly impact revenue and investor sentiment, especially if they can show improvement.

How has the cost per ounce of gold changed compared to previous quarters?

Understanding cost fluctuations is critical for assessing profitability and operational efficiency.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Seabridge's ability to reduce costs and improve production efficiency, which could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 16.98% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not align with the company's operational improvements.

The recent history of earnings misses may overshadow potential positive developments that have not been fully recognized.

Key Risk

If production estimates exceed expectations, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to manage costs effectively while increasing production, which is crucial in the current gold market.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant reduction in cost per ounce of gold, ideally below $1,200, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An increase in costs above $1,500 per ounce would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.98%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.0% while SA has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

73.5%

Calls (214K)P/C Ratio: 0.38Puts (38K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 29 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 18 of 29 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Seabridge beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.91%, confirming improved operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing investor caution.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical averages suggesting a drop of around 0.24%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production targets and timelines for upcoming projects.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into market demand for gold and how it affects pricing.
4Management's outlook on the gold market for the next quarter.
5Any commentary on potential partnerships or acquisitions that could enhance growth.

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Company Snapshot

Seabridge Gold Inc. is a gold exploration and development company focused on acquiring and advancing gold projects in North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

Gold Production Estimates

Understanding production levels is crucial as they directly impact revenue and profitability.

N/A

Cost per Ounce of Gold

This metric helps gauge operational efficiency and profitability, especially in a volatile gold market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-129.02%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.49%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Seabridge reported an EPS of -$0.04, matching analyst expectations but reflecting ongoing challenges. The stock saw a modest increase of 1.25% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Seabridge can demonstrate improved production efficiency and lower costs, it could significantly enhance investor confidence and drive the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or higher-than-expected costs, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the updated production estimates for the upcoming quarters?

Production levels will significantly impact revenue and investor sentiment, especially if they can show improvement.

How has the cost per ounce of gold changed compared to previous quarters?

Understanding cost fluctuations is critical for assessing profitability and operational efficiency.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Seabridge's ability to reduce costs and improve production efficiency, which could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 16.98% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not align with the company's operational improvements.

The recent history of earnings misses may overshadow potential positive developments that have not been fully recognized.

Key Risk

If production estimates exceed expectations, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to manage costs effectively while increasing production, which is crucial in the current gold market.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant reduction in cost per ounce of gold, ideally below $1,200, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An increase in costs above $1,500 per ounce would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.98%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.0% while SA has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

73.5%

Calls (214K)P/C Ratio: 0.38Puts (38K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 29 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Seabridge beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.91%, confirming improved operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing investor caution.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical averages suggesting a drop of around 0.24%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production targets and timelines for upcoming projects.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into market demand for gold and how it affects pricing.
4Management's outlook on the gold market for the next quarter.
5Any commentary on potential partnerships or acquisitions that could enhance growth.