Equity Profile

SBUX

Starbucks Corporation

Consumer DiscretionaryRestaurants$113.0B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is a leading coffeehouse chain known for its specialty coffee and beverages. As a major player in the consumer discretionary sector, Starbucks is influenced by trends in consumer spending and preferences, making it a key company to watch in the restaurant industry.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing, which is crucial for assessing customer demand and loyalty.

5.0%

Total Revenue

Revenue growth is essential for evaluating the company's overall health and its ability to expand and invest in new initiatives.

$8.2B

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SBUX Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.13%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Starbucks reported an EPS of $0.50, surpassing expectations by 14.16%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding digital sales channels.
Commitment to enhancing customer experience in stores.
Plans to introduce new seasonal products.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Starbucks to show steady growth in same-store sales and revenue, reflecting strong consumer demand despite economic uncertainties.

Bull Case

If Starbucks can exceed revenue expectations and demonstrate robust same-store sales growth, it could signal strong brand loyalty and effective marketing strategies.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing same-store sales or lower-than-expected EPS, it may raise concerns about consumer spending and competition in the coffee market.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

5.0%

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing, which is crucial for assessing customer demand and loyalty.

Total Revenue

$8.2B

Revenue growth is essential for evaluating the company's overall health and its ability to expand and invest in new initiatives.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.52

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge the company's financial performance this quarter.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the same-store sales growth be this quarter?

This figure will provide insight into customer demand and brand loyalty, which are critical for future growth.

How does management view the competitive landscape in the coffee market?

Understanding management's perspective on competition will help investors gauge potential challenges and opportunities ahead.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of Starbucks' digital sales initiatives, which could drive higher same-store sales growth than expected.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends show increasing customer engagement with the Starbucks app, suggesting potential for higher sales.

The company's focus on seasonal product launches could attract more customers during peak times.

Insider selling activity may not reflect overall confidence in the brand's long-term growth potential.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 6%, it could challenge current market expectations and shift sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on consumer spending trends and Starbucks' ability to attract and retain customers amidst increasing competition.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 6% or higher would confirm strong consumer demand and effective marketing strategies.

Bear Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth below 4% would raise concerns about declining customer interest and market share.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.5%

Historical Avg

±0.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.5% while SBUX has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.4%

Calls (555K)P/C Ratio: 0.67Puts (346K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$58,800.00

588 sh

1 insider

Net

$58,800.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

ceo, InternationalBREWER BRADY
$58,800.00
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starbucks beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.75% on the day, confirming strong brand performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 0.14%, indicating disappointment in growth prospects.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·3 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$3,003.00–$45,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-INJames BanksSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on digital sales growth and customer engagement metrics.
2Details on new product launches and seasonal promotions.
3Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the coffee market.
4Insights into supply chain challenges and their impact on operations.
5Any commentary on international market performance and expansion plans.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing, which is crucial for assessing customer demand and loyalty.

5.0%

Total Revenue

Revenue growth is essential for evaluating the company's overall health and its ability to expand and invest in new initiatives.

$8.2B

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SBUX Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.13%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Starbucks reported an EPS of $0.50, surpassing expectations by 14.16%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding digital sales channels.
Commitment to enhancing customer experience in stores.
Plans to introduce new seasonal products.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Starbucks to show steady growth in same-store sales and revenue, reflecting strong consumer demand despite economic uncertainties.

Bull Case

If Starbucks can exceed revenue expectations and demonstrate robust same-store sales growth, it could signal strong brand loyalty and effective marketing strategies.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing same-store sales or lower-than-expected EPS, it may raise concerns about consumer spending and competition in the coffee market.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

5.0%

This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing, which is crucial for assessing customer demand and loyalty.

Total Revenue

$8.2B

Revenue growth is essential for evaluating the company's overall health and its ability to expand and invest in new initiatives.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.52

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge the company's financial performance this quarter.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the same-store sales growth be this quarter?

This figure will provide insight into customer demand and brand loyalty, which are critical for future growth.

How does management view the competitive landscape in the coffee market?

Understanding management's perspective on competition will help investors gauge potential challenges and opportunities ahead.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of Starbucks' digital sales initiatives, which could drive higher same-store sales growth than expected.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends show increasing customer engagement with the Starbucks app, suggesting potential for higher sales.

The company's focus on seasonal product launches could attract more customers during peak times.

Insider selling activity may not reflect overall confidence in the brand's long-term growth potential.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 6%, it could challenge current market expectations and shift sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on consumer spending trends and Starbucks' ability to attract and retain customers amidst increasing competition.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 6% or higher would confirm strong consumer demand and effective marketing strategies.

Bear Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth below 4% would raise concerns about declining customer interest and market share.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.5%

Historical Avg

±0.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.5% while SBUX has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.4%

Calls (555K)P/C Ratio: 0.67Puts (346K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$58,800.00

588 sh

1 insider

Net

$58,800.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

ceo, InternationalBREWER BRADY
$58,800.00
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starbucks beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.75% on the day, confirming strong brand performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 0.14%, indicating disappointment in growth prospects.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·3 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$3,003.00–$45,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-INJames BanksSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on digital sales growth and customer engagement metrics.
2Details on new product launches and seasonal promotions.
3Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the coffee market.
4Insights into supply chain challenges and their impact on operations.
5Any commentary on international market performance and expansion plans.