Equity Profile

SF

Stifel Financial Corp.

FinancialsInvestment Banking & Brokerage$10.8B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) is a financial services company specializing in investment banking and brokerage services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and attract new clients, which is crucial for future performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) is a financial services company specializing in investment banking and brokerage services. With a market cap of $11 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, helping clients with capital raising, advisory services, and asset management.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-5.73%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Stifel reported an EPS of $1.45, exceeding expectations by 4.32%. However, the stock fell 5.96% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Stifel's upcoming earnings, given its recent track record of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of revenue guidance raises some uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Stifel continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and client growth, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.

How much has client AUM changed this quarter?

Changes in AUM will indicate the company's growth in investment management and could significantly impact future revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent client acquisitions on AUM growth, which could lead to better-than-expected revenue.

Supporting Evidence

Stifel has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, suggesting operational strength.

Recent trends in the financial sector indicate increased client activity, which could positively impact AUM.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that traders expect significant movement based on the earnings report.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations significantly, it could lead to a re-evaluation of the company's growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will set the tone for the rest of the year, especially in light of recent market volatility.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.40 would indicate potential issues with profitability and could lead to a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.8%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of 5.8%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.8% while SF has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.8%

Calls (750)P/C Ratio: 0.01Puts (600)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Stifel beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.02% on the following day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses EPS expectations, the average reaction suggests a potential drop of around 1.55%, raising concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on client acquisition strategies and their impact on AUM.
2Details on cost management initiatives and their effect on EPS.
3Insights into market conditions affecting investment banking activities.
4Management's outlook on the financial services landscape for the remainder of the year.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes that could impact operations.

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Company Snapshot

Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) is a financial services company specializing in investment banking and brokerage services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and attract new clients, which is crucial for future performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-5.73%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Stifel reported an EPS of $1.45, exceeding expectations by 4.32%. However, the stock fell 5.96% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Stifel's upcoming earnings, given its recent track record of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of revenue guidance raises some uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Stifel continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and client growth, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.

How much has client AUM changed this quarter?

Changes in AUM will indicate the company's growth in investment management and could significantly impact future revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent client acquisitions on AUM growth, which could lead to better-than-expected revenue.

Supporting Evidence

Stifel has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, suggesting operational strength.

Recent trends in the financial sector indicate increased client activity, which could positively impact AUM.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that traders expect significant movement based on the earnings report.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations significantly, it could lead to a re-evaluation of the company's growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will set the tone for the rest of the year, especially in light of recent market volatility.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.40 would indicate potential issues with profitability and could lead to a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.8%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of 5.8%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.8% while SF has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.8%

Calls (750)P/C Ratio: 0.01Puts (600)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Stifel beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.02% on the following day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses EPS expectations, the average reaction suggests a potential drop of around 1.55%, raising concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on client acquisition strategies and their impact on AUM.
2Details on cost management initiatives and their effect on EPS.
3Insights into market conditions affecting investment banking activities.
4Management's outlook on the financial services landscape for the remainder of the year.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes that could impact operations.