Equity Profile

SMG

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

MaterialsFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals$3.7B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is a leading provider of lawn and garden products, including fertilizers and seeds. As a key player in the materials sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending on home improvement and gardening, which can fluctuate based on economic conditions.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and market share, especially in a competitive industry.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SMG Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.23%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.89%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro reported an EPS of $4.53, surpassing expectations by 14.16%. However, the stock fell 4.53% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving product lines and expanding market reach.
Commitment to cost management and operational efficiency.
Plans to enhance customer engagement through digital platforms.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Scotts Miracle-Gro are cautious, given the mixed performance in recent quarters. Investors are looking for signs of sustained profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If the company can demonstrate strong demand for its products and effective cost management, it could lead to a significant rebound in stock performance.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet profitability expectations or shows signs of declining sales, it could result in a further drop in stock value.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?

A strong EPS could indicate improved profitability and boost investor confidence, while a weak EPS could raise concerns about the company's financial health.

How is revenue growth trending compared to previous quarters?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's market position and the effectiveness of its growth strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for Scotts Miracle-Gro to capitalize on the growing trend of home gardening and outdoor living, which could drive higher sales than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Recent consumer trends indicate increased spending on gardening supplies, which could benefit SMG.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant stock movement.

The company's recent product innovations may not be fully reflected in current market expectations.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS significantly above $5.00, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of mixed results, and investors are eager to see if the company can stabilize its earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.00 or higher would confirm strong profitability and positive market sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.50 would indicate potential issues in profitability and could lead to negative market reactions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.17%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while SMG has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

42.5%

Calls (47K)P/C Ratio: 0.67Puts (19K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If the company beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future growth.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a significant drop in stock value, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Any commentary on consumer demand trends in the gardening sector.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Details on market share changes relative to competitors.
5Management's outlook on the upcoming quarters and any potential challenges.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and market share, especially in a competitive industry.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SMG Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.23%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.89%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving product lines and expanding market reach.
Commitment to cost management and operational efficiency.
Plans to enhance customer engagement through digital platforms.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Scotts Miracle-Gro are cautious, given the mixed performance in recent quarters. Investors are looking for signs of sustained profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If the company can demonstrate strong demand for its products and effective cost management, it could lead to a significant rebound in stock performance.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet profitability expectations or shows signs of declining sales, it could result in a further drop in stock value.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?

A strong EPS could indicate improved profitability and boost investor confidence, while a weak EPS could raise concerns about the company's financial health.

How is revenue growth trending compared to previous quarters?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's market position and the effectiveness of its growth strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for Scotts Miracle-Gro to capitalize on the growing trend of home gardening and outdoor living, which could drive higher sales than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Recent consumer trends indicate increased spending on gardening supplies, which could benefit SMG.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant stock movement.

The company's recent product innovations may not be fully reflected in current market expectations.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS significantly above $5.00, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of mixed results, and investors are eager to see if the company can stabilize its earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.00 or higher would confirm strong profitability and positive market sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.50 would indicate potential issues in profitability and could lead to negative market reactions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.17%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while SMG has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

42.5%

Calls (47K)P/C Ratio: 0.67Puts (19K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If the company beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future growth.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a significant drop in stock value, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Any commentary on consumer demand trends in the gardening sector.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Details on market share changes relative to competitors.
5Management's outlook on the upcoming quarters and any potential challenges.