Equity Profile

SMG

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

MaterialsFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals$3.6B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is a leading provider of lawn and garden products, including fertilizers and other agricultural chemicals. As a key player in the materials sector, it benefits from trends in consumer gardening and landscaping, which have gained popularity in recent years.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs amid potential challenges.

$-2.17

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for gardening products, especially during the peak gardening season.

$312M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SMG Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.23%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.89%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro reported an EPS of $4.53, exceeding estimates by 14.16%. However, the stock fell 4.53% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the positive surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Scotts Miracle-Gro to report a loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-2.17. The market is cautious, reflecting concerns over ongoing challenges in the gardening sector.

Bull Case

If the company can show stronger-than-expected revenue growth and improved cost management, it may signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued losses and weak revenue could indicate deeper issues within the company, leading to further declines in stock value.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-2.17

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs amid potential challenges.

Revenue

$312M

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for gardening products, especially during the peak gardening season.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-2.17?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which are critical for restoring investor confidence.

What revenue figures will the company report, especially in relation to the $312M consensus?

Revenue performance is crucial for understanding demand trends and the company's ability to capitalize on seasonal gardening activities.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a revenue rebound due to seasonal gardening trends, which could drive stronger sales than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company has historically exceeded EPS estimates 75% of the time, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing indicates higher volatility, which could reflect expectations of a significant move based on upcoming results.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in significantly above $340M, it could shift the narrative and lead to a reassessment of the company's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is pivotal as it will reveal whether the company can rebound from recent losses and meet market expectations.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $340M would confirm strong demand and operational success.

Bear Confirmed If

Revenue falling below $303M would suggest ongoing challenges in the market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.17%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while SMG has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

42.5%

Calls (47K)P/C Ratio: 0.67Puts (19K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Scotts Miracle-Gro beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest decline of around 2.25% on the first day, indicating skepticism despite positive results.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain flat as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a more significant decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of 8.83% following earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
2Insights into consumer demand trends for gardening products this season.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Details on any new product launches or innovations in the pipeline.
5Responses to how the company plans to navigate ongoing industry challenges.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs amid potential challenges.

$-2.17

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for gardening products, especially during the peak gardening season.

$312M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SMG Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.23%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.89%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro reported an EPS of $4.53, exceeding estimates by 14.16%. However, the stock fell 4.53% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the positive surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Scotts Miracle-Gro to report a loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-2.17. The market is cautious, reflecting concerns over ongoing challenges in the gardening sector.

Bull Case

If the company can show stronger-than-expected revenue growth and improved cost management, it may signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued losses and weak revenue could indicate deeper issues within the company, leading to further declines in stock value.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-2.17

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs amid potential challenges.

Revenue

$312M

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for gardening products, especially during the peak gardening season.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-2.17?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which are critical for restoring investor confidence.

What revenue figures will the company report, especially in relation to the $312M consensus?

Revenue performance is crucial for understanding demand trends and the company's ability to capitalize on seasonal gardening activities.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a revenue rebound due to seasonal gardening trends, which could drive stronger sales than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company has historically exceeded EPS estimates 75% of the time, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing indicates higher volatility, which could reflect expectations of a significant move based on upcoming results.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in significantly above $340M, it could shift the narrative and lead to a reassessment of the company's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is pivotal as it will reveal whether the company can rebound from recent losses and meet market expectations.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $340M would confirm strong demand and operational success.

Bear Confirmed If

Revenue falling below $303M would suggest ongoing challenges in the market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.17%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while SMG has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

42.5%

Calls (47K)P/C Ratio: 0.67Puts (19K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Scotts Miracle-Gro beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest decline of around 2.25% on the first day, indicating skepticism despite positive results.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain flat as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a more significant decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of 8.83% following earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
2Insights into consumer demand trends for gardening products this season.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Details on any new product launches or innovations in the pipeline.
5Responses to how the company plans to navigate ongoing industry challenges.