Equity Profile

SMG

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

MaterialsFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals$3.5B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is a leading provider of lawn and garden products, including fertilizers and agricultural chemicals. As a key player in the materials sector, its performance can be influenced by consumer spending trends and agricultural demand.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company managed costs and sales in the quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into how demand for gardening products is performing, especially during peak seasons.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SMG Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.23%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.89%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro reported an EPS of $4.53, surpassing estimates by 14.16%. However, the stock fell 4.53% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on cost management to improve margins.
Enhance product offerings to capture more market share.
Commit to sustainability initiatives in product development.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Scotts Miracle-Gro's upcoming earnings, given its recent EPS surprises. However, the market remains wary of potential revenue challenges.

Bull Case

If the company can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve margins, it could lead to a positive stock reaction, especially if consumer spending remains strong.

Bear Case

Conversely, if revenue growth is sluggish or if there are signs of increased competition, the stock could face downward pressure, particularly given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth will be crucial in assessing the company's ability to attract and retain customers in a competitive market.

How is the company addressing cost pressures and supply chain challenges?

Understanding management's strategy to mitigate costs will be essential for evaluating future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Scotts Miracle-Gro's ability to capitalize on increased gardening interest, especially in light of recent consumer trends favoring home gardening.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 10.17% move, but the stock has averaged only 7.59% in past quarters.

The company has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate.

Recent consumer surveys indicate a growing interest in gardening products.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on the company's ability to navigate market challenges while maintaining growth.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth of 10% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue decline or stagnation would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.17%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while SMG has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

42.5%

Calls (47K)P/C Ratio: 0.67Puts (19K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.6% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Scotts Miracle-Gro beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 2.25% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 8.83% on the first day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or innovations.
2Insights into consumer demand trends for gardening products.
3Management's outlook on supply chain stability.
4Comments on competitive pressures in the market.
5Details on sustainability initiatives and their impact on sales.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company managed costs and sales in the quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into how demand for gardening products is performing, especially during peak seasons.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SMG Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.23%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.89%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro reported an EPS of $4.53, surpassing estimates by 14.16%. However, the stock fell 4.53% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on cost management to improve margins.
Enhance product offerings to capture more market share.
Commit to sustainability initiatives in product development.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Scotts Miracle-Gro's upcoming earnings, given its recent EPS surprises. However, the market remains wary of potential revenue challenges.

Bull Case

If the company can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve margins, it could lead to a positive stock reaction, especially if consumer spending remains strong.

Bear Case

Conversely, if revenue growth is sluggish or if there are signs of increased competition, the stock could face downward pressure, particularly given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth will be crucial in assessing the company's ability to attract and retain customers in a competitive market.

How is the company addressing cost pressures and supply chain challenges?

Understanding management's strategy to mitigate costs will be essential for evaluating future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Scotts Miracle-Gro's ability to capitalize on increased gardening interest, especially in light of recent consumer trends favoring home gardening.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 10.17% move, but the stock has averaged only 7.59% in past quarters.

The company has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate.

Recent consumer surveys indicate a growing interest in gardening products.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on the company's ability to navigate market challenges while maintaining growth.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth of 10% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue decline or stagnation would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.17%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while SMG has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

42.5%

Calls (47K)P/C Ratio: 0.67Puts (19K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Scotts Miracle-Gro beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 2.25% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 8.83% on the first day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or innovations.
2Insights into consumer demand trends for gardening products.
3Management's outlook on supply chain stability.
4Comments on competitive pressures in the market.
5Details on sustainability initiatives and their impact on sales.