Equity Profile

STX

Seagate Technology Holdings plc

Information TechnologyTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals$191.3B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is a leading provider of data storage solutions, specializing in hard drives and storage systems. As a key player in the information technology sector, Seagate is crucial for businesses and consumers alike, especially with the growing demand for data storage driven by cloud computing and digital content creation.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and meet customer demand, crucial for future investments.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STX Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+29.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.20%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Seagate reported an EPS of $4.10, significantly exceeding expectations by 25.96%. However, the stock price fell by 2.82% the following day, indicating some market skepticism despite the strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, Wall Street is anticipating another strong performance from Seagate, especially given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, there is a cautious undertone due to the stock's recent volatility.

Bull Case

The optimistic view is that Seagate will continue to outperform expectations, driven by robust demand for storage solutions in cloud and enterprise markets, leading to higher stock prices.

Bear Case

On the flip side, if Seagate fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility in the options market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth will be a key indicator of Seagate's ability to capitalize on market demand and could significantly impact investor sentiment.

How is Seagate managing its gross margins in the current economic environment?

Understanding gross margin trends will help investors gauge the company's cost management and pricing power, which are critical for profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Seagate's potential for revenue growth driven by increasing demand for data storage solutions, particularly in cloud services.

Supporting Evidence

Seagate has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected performance.

The options market is pricing a large move, suggesting that traders anticipate significant developments that may not be reflected in current consensus.

Recent trends in data consumption and cloud adoption suggest a more favorable environment for Seagate's products.

Key Risk

If revenue growth comes in below 5%, it could challenge the current bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Seagate's ability to navigate market challenges and maintain its growth trajectory.

Bull Confirmed If

If Seagate reports revenue growth of over 15% year-over-year, it would strongly support the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

Conversely, if revenue growth falls below 5%, it would raise concerns about the company's market position and future prospects.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.8%

Historical Avg

±2.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a substantial move of approximately 15.8%, indicating that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.8% while STX has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

57.9%

Calls (949K)P/C Ratio: 1.84Puts (613K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Seagate beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 0.20% the following day, confirming strong market demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

If Seagate misses estimates, the stock could drop, potentially reflecting the average 1-day move of -3.18%, indicating significant disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-TXJulie JohnsonRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends in the cloud storage market.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on gross margins.
3Comments on competitive pressures and how Seagate plans to address them.
4Details on any new product launches or innovations in storage technology.
5Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and meet customer demand, crucial for future investments.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STX Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+29.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.20%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

The optimistic view is that Seagate will continue to outperform expectations, driven by robust demand for storage solutions in cloud and enterprise markets, leading to higher stock prices.

Bear Case

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth will be a key indicator of Seagate's ability to capitalize on market demand and could significantly impact investor sentiment.

How is Seagate managing its gross margins in the current economic environment?

Understanding gross margin trends will help investors gauge the company's cost management and pricing power, which are critical for profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Seagate's potential for revenue growth driven by increasing demand for data storage solutions, particularly in cloud services.

Supporting Evidence

Seagate has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected performance.

The options market is pricing a large move, suggesting that traders anticipate significant developments that may not be reflected in current consensus.

Recent trends in data consumption and cloud adoption suggest a more favorable environment for Seagate's products.

Key Risk

If revenue growth comes in below 5%, it could challenge the current bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Seagate's ability to navigate market challenges and maintain its growth trajectory.

Bull Confirmed If

If Seagate reports revenue growth of over 15% year-over-year, it would strongly support the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

Conversely, if revenue growth falls below 5%, it would raise concerns about the company's market position and future prospects.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.8%

Historical Avg

±2.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a substantial move of approximately 15.8%, indicating that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.8% while STX has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

57.9%

Calls (949K)P/C Ratio: 1.84Puts (613K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Seagate beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 0.20% the following day, confirming strong market demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

If Seagate misses estimates, the stock could drop, potentially reflecting the average 1-day move of -3.18%, indicating significant disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-TXJulie JohnsonRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends in the cloud storage market.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on gross margins.
3Comments on competitive pressures and how Seagate plans to address them.
4Details on any new product launches or innovations in storage technology.
5Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.