Equity Profile

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Information TechnologySemiconductors$2.2T

Jul16Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is a leading semiconductor manufacturer that plays a crucial role in the global technology supply chain. As a key supplier for major tech companies, TSM is essential for advancements in areas like artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and consumer electronics.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$3.74

Revenue

Revenue indicates the overall sales performance and demand for TSM's semiconductor products.

$1261.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TSM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, TSM reported an EPS of $3.49, exceeding expectations by 5.47%. However, the stock fell 3.13% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting TSM to report solid earnings driven by strong demand in the semiconductor sector. The consensus EPS of $3.74 reflects optimism about continued growth.

Bull Case

If TSM beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for semiconductors, particularly in AI and cloud applications, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if TSM misses earnings estimates or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about slowing demand in the semiconductor industry, negatively impacting the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$3.74

EPS is a critical measure of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$1261.2B

Revenue indicates the overall sales performance and demand for TSM's semiconductor products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will TSM achieve an EPS of $3.74 or higher?

A strong EPS performance would reinforce confidence in TSM's growth trajectory and demand for its products.

What guidance will TSM provide for revenue growth in the next quarter?

Guidance on revenue growth will be crucial for assessing future demand and market conditions in the semiconductor industry.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for TSM to exceed EPS expectations due to strong demand in AI-related semiconductor applications.

Supporting Evidence

TSM has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, with a 100% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

Insider buying activity indicates confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If TSM's revenue growth falls below the expected $1261.2B, it could undermine the bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating TSM's ability to sustain growth in a competitive semiconductor landscape, with earnings and revenue figures being key indicators.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.80 or higher, combined with revenue exceeding $1283.0B, would confirm a strong bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.67 or revenue under $1225.0B would support a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.41%

Historical Avg

±3.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±13.4% while TSM has averaged ±3.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

38.3%

Calls (3.6M)P/C Ratio: 1.30Puts (4.2M)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$110,415.96

1,908 sh

28 insiders

Sold

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Net

$110,415.96

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 29 open-market trades

VPTien Bor-Zen
$3,587.94
Net buying

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TSM beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.15%, confirming strong demand and growth.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted reactions as investors await further guidance.

Miss

In the event of a miss, history indicates an average one-day move of -3.13%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over demand.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

7 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$107,008.00–$355,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
4

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand for AI-related semiconductors.
2Insights into supply chain challenges and their impact on production.
3Management's commentary on competitive pressures in the semiconductor market.
4Guidance on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Details on new product launches or partnerships.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$3.74

Revenue

Revenue indicates the overall sales performance and demand for TSM's semiconductor products.

$1261.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TSM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, TSM reported an EPS of $3.49, exceeding expectations by 5.47%. However, the stock fell 3.13% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting TSM to report solid earnings driven by strong demand in the semiconductor sector. The consensus EPS of $3.74 reflects optimism about continued growth.

Bull Case

If TSM beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for semiconductors, particularly in AI and cloud applications, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if TSM misses earnings estimates or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about slowing demand in the semiconductor industry, negatively impacting the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$3.74

EPS is a critical measure of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$1261.2B

Revenue indicates the overall sales performance and demand for TSM's semiconductor products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will TSM achieve an EPS of $3.74 or higher?

A strong EPS performance would reinforce confidence in TSM's growth trajectory and demand for its products.

What guidance will TSM provide for revenue growth in the next quarter?

Guidance on revenue growth will be crucial for assessing future demand and market conditions in the semiconductor industry.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for TSM to exceed EPS expectations due to strong demand in AI-related semiconductor applications.

Supporting Evidence

TSM has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, with a 100% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

Insider buying activity indicates confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If TSM's revenue growth falls below the expected $1261.2B, it could undermine the bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating TSM's ability to sustain growth in a competitive semiconductor landscape, with earnings and revenue figures being key indicators.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.80 or higher, combined with revenue exceeding $1283.0B, would confirm a strong bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.67 or revenue under $1225.0B would support a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.41%

Historical Avg

±3.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±13.4% while TSM has averaged ±3.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

38.3%

Calls (3.6M)P/C Ratio: 1.30Puts (4.2M)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$110,415.96

1,908 sh

28 insiders

Sold

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Net

$110,415.96

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 29 open-market trades

VPTien Bor-Zen
$3,587.94
Net buying

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TSM beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.15%, confirming strong demand and growth.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted reactions as investors await further guidance.

Miss

In the event of a miss, history indicates an average one-day move of -3.13%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over demand.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

7 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$107,008.00–$355,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
4

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand for AI-related semiconductors.
2Insights into supply chain challenges and their impact on production.
3Management's commentary on competitive pressures in the semiconductor market.
4Guidance on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Details on new product launches or partnerships.