Equity Profile

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Information TechnologySemiconductors$2.2T

Jul16Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is a leading semiconductor manufacturer that plays a crucial role in the technology sector. As a key supplier for major tech companies, TSM is pivotal in the production of chips used in everything from smartphones to artificial intelligence applications.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health.

$3.74

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and demand for its semiconductor products.

$1261.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TSM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, TSM reported an EPS of $3.49, exceeding expectations by 5.47%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.13% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect TSM to continue its strong performance with an EPS of $3.74 and revenue of $1261.2B. The stock's implied move suggests significant market anticipation.

Bull Case

If TSM beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for semiconductors, especially in AI and cloud computing sectors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if TSM misses expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about slowing demand in the semiconductor market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$3.74

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$1261.2B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and demand for its semiconductor products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will TSM's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $3.74?

A beat on EPS would reinforce TSM's strong performance and could boost investor confidence.

What guidance will TSM provide regarding future revenue growth?

Future revenue guidance will be critical in assessing the company's outlook, especially in a fluctuating semiconductor market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate TSM's growth potential in AI-related semiconductor demand, which could drive higher revenue than expected.

Supporting Evidence

TSM's recent performance has consistently exceeded EPS estimates, indicating strong operational efficiency.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that investors are anticipating significant news.

Key Risk

If TSM reports revenue above $1283.0B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers on TSM's ability to maintain growth in a competitive and potentially slowing semiconductor market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.80 or higher, coupled with revenue growth exceeding $1283.0B, would confirm the bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.67 or revenue falling short of $1225.0B would support the bearish case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.41%

Historical Avg

±3.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±13.4% while TSM has averaged ±3.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

38.3%

Calls (3.6M)P/C Ratio: 1.30Puts (4.2M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TSM beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2.15% the next day, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

In the event of a miss, the stock could drop, with historical patterns indicating a potential decline of around 3.33%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-LACleo FieldsRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on TSM's capacity to meet increasing demand for AI chips.
2Insights into customer demand trends in key markets like smartphones and data centers.
3Management's commentary on supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.
4Guidance on capital expenditures for the upcoming quarters.
5Any new partnerships or contracts that could impact future revenue.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health.

$3.74

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and demand for its semiconductor products.

$1261.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TSM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, TSM reported an EPS of $3.49, exceeding expectations by 5.47%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.13% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect TSM to continue its strong performance with an EPS of $3.74 and revenue of $1261.2B. The stock's implied move suggests significant market anticipation.

Bull Case

If TSM beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for semiconductors, especially in AI and cloud computing sectors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if TSM misses expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about slowing demand in the semiconductor market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$3.74

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$1261.2B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and demand for its semiconductor products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will TSM's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $3.74?

A beat on EPS would reinforce TSM's strong performance and could boost investor confidence.

What guidance will TSM provide regarding future revenue growth?

Future revenue guidance will be critical in assessing the company's outlook, especially in a fluctuating semiconductor market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate TSM's growth potential in AI-related semiconductor demand, which could drive higher revenue than expected.

Supporting Evidence

TSM's recent performance has consistently exceeded EPS estimates, indicating strong operational efficiency.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that investors are anticipating significant news.

Key Risk

If TSM reports revenue above $1283.0B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers on TSM's ability to maintain growth in a competitive and potentially slowing semiconductor market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.80 or higher, coupled with revenue growth exceeding $1283.0B, would confirm the bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.67 or revenue falling short of $1225.0B would support the bearish case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.41%

Historical Avg

±3.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±13.4% while TSM has averaged ±3.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

38.3%

Calls (3.6M)P/C Ratio: 1.30Puts (4.2M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TSM beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2.15% the next day, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

In the event of a miss, the stock could drop, with historical patterns indicating a potential decline of around 3.33%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-LACleo FieldsRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on TSM's capacity to meet increasing demand for AI chips.
2Insights into customer demand trends in key markets like smartphones and data centers.
3Management's commentary on supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.
4Guidance on capital expenditures for the upcoming quarters.
5Any new partnerships or contracts that could impact future revenue.