Equity Profile

UGP

Ultrapar ParticipaÃ§Ãµes S.A.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$6.4B

Aug12Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2018After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$0.13

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and overall market demand.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q2-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail. With a market cap of $6 billion, the company plays a significant role in the automotive market, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported an EPS of $0.14, slightly above expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.05% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ultrapar to report an EPS of $0.13 and revenue of $37.3 billion, indicating stable performance amid market fluctuations.

Bull Case

If Ultrapar exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand in the automotive sector, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings or revenue targets, it may indicate underlying weaknesses in sales or market conditions, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$37.3B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and overall market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ultrapar's revenue meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $37.3 billion?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing the company's growth and market demand, which will heavily influence investor sentiment.

How will management address the recent stock performance and market conditions?

Management's commentary on market challenges and strategies can provide insights into future performance and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for Ultrapar to outperform due to stronger-than-expected consumer demand in the automotive sector.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 25.1% move, indicating significant expectations for volatility.

Ultrapar has a history of beating EPS estimates, which could lead to a positive surprise this quarter.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $35 billion, it could undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Ultrapar can maintain its earnings momentum amid fluctuating market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings surpassing $0.13 with revenue exceeding $37.3 billion would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Earnings below $0.13 or revenue falling short of $37.3 billion would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.1%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.1% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

32.0%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 0.20Puts (0)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.55% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess future prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.73% on the next trading day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends in the automotive sector.
2Management's insights on cost pressures and pricing strategies.
3Details on any new product launches or market expansions.
4Guidance on future earnings expectations and market outlook.
5Responses to questions about competitive pressures in the automotive retail space.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$0.13

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and overall market demand.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q2-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported an EPS of $0.14, slightly above expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.05% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ultrapar to report an EPS of $0.13 and revenue of $37.3 billion, indicating stable performance amid market fluctuations.

Bull Case

If Ultrapar exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand in the automotive sector, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings or revenue targets, it may indicate underlying weaknesses in sales or market conditions, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$37.3B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and overall market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ultrapar's revenue meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $37.3 billion?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing the company's growth and market demand, which will heavily influence investor sentiment.

How will management address the recent stock performance and market conditions?

Management's commentary on market challenges and strategies can provide insights into future performance and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for Ultrapar to outperform due to stronger-than-expected consumer demand in the automotive sector.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 25.1% move, indicating significant expectations for volatility.

Ultrapar has a history of beating EPS estimates, which could lead to a positive surprise this quarter.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $35 billion, it could undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Ultrapar can maintain its earnings momentum amid fluctuating market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings surpassing $0.13 with revenue exceeding $37.3 billion would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Earnings below $0.13 or revenue falling short of $37.3 billion would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.1%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.1% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

32.0%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 0.20Puts (0)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.55% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess future prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.73% on the next trading day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends in the automotive sector.
2Management's insights on cost pressures and pricing strategies.
3Details on any new product launches or market expansions.
4Guidance on future earnings expectations and market outlook.
5Responses to questions about competitive pressures in the automotive retail space.