Equity Profile

ULTA

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryOther Specialty Retail$20.1B

Jun2Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a leading beauty retailer in the consumer discretionary sector, offering a wide range of cosmetics, skincare, and haircare products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health this quarter.

$6.89

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand for beauty products.

$3.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ULTA Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a leading beauty retailer in the consumer discretionary sector, offering a wide range of cosmetics, skincare, and haircare products. With a market cap of $20 billion, Ulta plays a significant role in the beauty industry, catering to diverse consumer preferences and trends in personal care.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ulta reported an EPS of $8.01, matching analyst expectations. However, the stock fell by 4.28% the following day, indicating market disappointment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ulta to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $6.89 and revenue of $3.1 billion. The market is closely watching how consumer spending trends will impact these figures.

Bull Case

If Ulta exceeds the EPS estimate and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust consumer demand and effective marketing strategies, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Ulta misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could signal potential challenges in the retail environment, leading to a negative market response.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$6.89

Earnings per share (EPS) is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health this quarter.

Revenue

$3.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand for beauty products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ulta's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $6.89?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected consumer demand and effective cost management, which are critical for investor confidence.

What guidance will Ulta provide for future revenue growth?

Future revenue guidance will be crucial in assessing the company's outlook amidst changing consumer spending habits.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Ulta's ability to capitalize on emerging beauty trends and consumer preferences, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Ulta has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a much larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

Recent insider buying activity indicates confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If Ulta's revenue growth exceeds $3.2 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Ulta's ability to maintain growth in a competitive retail environment, especially in light of recent consumer spending trends.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $7.00 or higher, along with revenue growth exceeding $3.2 billion, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $6.54 or revenue below $3.1 billion would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.64%

Historical Avg

±2.04%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 10% around the earnings report, suggesting heightened volatility expectations.

Options price a 9.64% move but the stock has averaged only 2.04% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.0%

30d HV

30.5%

Calls (117K)P/C Ratio: 1.81Puts (115K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ulta beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.15% on the following day, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future guidance.

Miss

If Ulta misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.21%, indicating market disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-FLMaria Elvira SalazarRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on consumer spending trends in the beauty sector.
2Updates on new product launches and marketing strategies.
3Insights into inventory management and supply chain challenges.
4Details on customer loyalty program performance and engagement.
5Any mention of competitive pressures from other beauty retailers.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a leading beauty retailer in the consumer discretionary sector, offering a wide range of cosmetics, skincare, and haircare products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health this quarter.

$6.89

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand for beauty products.

$3.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ULTA Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ulta reported an EPS of $8.01, matching analyst expectations. However, the stock fell by 4.28% the following day, indicating market disappointment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ulta exceeds the EPS estimate and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust consumer demand and effective marketing strategies, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Ulta misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could signal potential challenges in the retail environment, leading to a negative market response.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$6.89

Earnings per share (EPS) is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health this quarter.

Revenue

$3.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand for beauty products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ulta's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $6.89?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected consumer demand and effective cost management, which are critical for investor confidence.

What guidance will Ulta provide for future revenue growth?

Future revenue guidance will be crucial in assessing the company's outlook amidst changing consumer spending habits.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Ulta's ability to capitalize on emerging beauty trends and consumer preferences, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Ulta has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a much larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

Recent insider buying activity indicates confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If Ulta's revenue growth exceeds $3.2 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Ulta's ability to maintain growth in a competitive retail environment, especially in light of recent consumer spending trends.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $7.00 or higher, along with revenue growth exceeding $3.2 billion, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $6.54 or revenue below $3.1 billion would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.64%

Historical Avg

±2.04%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 10% around the earnings report, suggesting heightened volatility expectations.

Options price a 9.64% move but the stock has averaged only 2.04% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.0%

30d HV

30.5%

Calls (117K)P/C Ratio: 1.81Puts (115K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ulta beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.15% on the following day, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future guidance.

Miss

If Ulta misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.21%, indicating market disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-FLMaria Elvira SalazarRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on consumer spending trends in the beauty sector.
2Updates on new product launches and marketing strategies.
3Insights into inventory management and supply chain challenges.
4Details on customer loyalty program performance and engagement.
5Any mention of competitive pressures from other beauty retailers.