Equity Profile

VLO

Valero Energy Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$77.2B

Jul23Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $73 billion, Valero is significant in the energy landscape, especially as global energy demands fluctuate and the industry adapts to changing regulations and consumer preferences.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins directly impact Valero's profitability, reflecting the difference between the cost of crude oil and the price of refined products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VLO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+91.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.27%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Valero reported an EPS of $4.22, significantly beating estimates by 37.46%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.51% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Valero has shown strong EPS surprises in recent quarters, but revenue estimates remain uncertain.

Bull Case

If Valero continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could indicate strong operational efficiency and market demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if refining margins decline or if the company fails to meet revenue expectations, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the refining margins be for this quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for Valero's profitability, and any significant changes could impact earnings.

How does management view the outlook for oil prices?

Management's perspective on oil prices can provide insight into future profitability and operational strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the resilience of refining margins given recent trends in oil prices, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Valero has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational management.

The options market is pricing a relatively low move, suggesting that investors may not be fully anticipating volatility.

Historical data shows that refining margins have rebounded quickly in similar market conditions.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the sustainability of refining margins amid fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

Refining margins exceeding $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If refining margins fall below $10 per barrel, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.63%

Historical Avg

±3.0%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a modest move, suggesting that investors are anticipating some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±2.6% while VLO has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

45.2%

Calls (172K)P/C Ratio: 0.61Puts (82K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Valero beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.37%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.02%, reflecting investor disappointment in performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and their expected trajectory.
2Management's commentary on oil price outlook and its impact on operations.
3Insights into cost management strategies in the current economic climate.
4Any changes in demand forecasts for refined products.
5Updates on capital expenditures and future growth plans.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins directly impact Valero's profitability, reflecting the difference between the cost of crude oil and the price of refined products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VLO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+91.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.27%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Valero reported an EPS of $4.22, significantly beating estimates by 37.46%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.51% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Valero has shown strong EPS surprises in recent quarters, but revenue estimates remain uncertain.

Bull Case

If Valero continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could indicate strong operational efficiency and market demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if refining margins decline or if the company fails to meet revenue expectations, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the refining margins be for this quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for Valero's profitability, and any significant changes could impact earnings.

How does management view the outlook for oil prices?

Management's perspective on oil prices can provide insight into future profitability and operational strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the resilience of refining margins given recent trends in oil prices, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Valero has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational management.

The options market is pricing a relatively low move, suggesting that investors may not be fully anticipating volatility.

Historical data shows that refining margins have rebounded quickly in similar market conditions.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the sustainability of refining margins amid fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

Refining margins exceeding $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If refining margins fall below $10 per barrel, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.63%

Historical Avg

±3.0%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a modest move, suggesting that investors are anticipating some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±2.6% while VLO has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

45.2%

Calls (172K)P/C Ratio: 0.61Puts (82K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Valero beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.37%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.02%, reflecting investor disappointment in performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and their expected trajectory.
2Management's commentary on oil price outlook and its impact on operations.
3Insights into cost management strategies in the current economic climate.
4Any changes in demand forecasts for refined products.
5Updates on capital expenditures and future growth plans.