Equity Profile

VLO

Valero Energy Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$87.9B

Jul23Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a major player in the energy sector, specifically in oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $88 billion, Valero is significant for its role in producing transportation fuels and other petrochemical products, which are essential for the economy and consumer spending.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins indicate how much profit Valero is making from turning crude oil into gasoline and other products, which is critical for their revenue.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VLO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+91.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.27%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Valero reported an EPS of $4.22, significantly beating expectations of $3.07, which resulted in a modest stock increase of 0.51% the following day. The strong performance continues a trend of exceeding earnings estimates.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Valero's upcoming earnings are mixed, with a focus on refining margins and profitability. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its strong earnings trajectory.

Bull Case

If Valero can report strong refining margins and continued revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if refining margins decline or the company fails to meet earnings expectations, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the refining margins for this quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for Valero's profitability, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does management view the demand for gasoline and other products moving forward?

Management's outlook on demand will help investors gauge future revenue potential and market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the strength of Valero's refining margins due to recent increases in crude oil prices, which could enhance profitability more than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Valero has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance than the market expects.

The options market is pricing a modest move, suggesting a lack of confidence in a significant shift, which could be misleading given recent trends.

Historical data shows that Valero has a high EPS beat rate, which could lead to a positive surprise this quarter.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on how refining margins will impact overall profitability and whether demand remains strong.

Bull Confirmed If

If refining margins exceed $20 per barrel, it would confirm the bullish outlook for Valero's profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

If refining margins fall below $10 per barrel, it would indicate significant challenges for the company's earnings.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.63%

Historical Avg

±3.0%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a move of about 2.63%, suggesting that investors expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±2.6% while VLO has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

45.2%

Calls (172K)P/C Ratio: 0.61Puts (82K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Valero beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.37%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 3.02%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on refining margins and how they compare to last quarter.
2Management's outlook on gasoline demand for the upcoming months.
3Any commentary on operational efficiencies or cost management strategies.
4Insights into potential regulatory impacts on the refining industry.
5Discussion on capital expenditures and future growth plans.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins indicate how much profit Valero is making from turning crude oil into gasoline and other products, which is critical for their revenue.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VLO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+91.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.27%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Valero can report strong refining margins and continued revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if refining margins decline or the company fails to meet earnings expectations, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the refining margins for this quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for Valero's profitability, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does management view the demand for gasoline and other products moving forward?

Management's outlook on demand will help investors gauge future revenue potential and market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the strength of Valero's refining margins due to recent increases in crude oil prices, which could enhance profitability more than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Valero has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance than the market expects.

The options market is pricing a modest move, suggesting a lack of confidence in a significant shift, which could be misleading given recent trends.

Historical data shows that Valero has a high EPS beat rate, which could lead to a positive surprise this quarter.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on how refining margins will impact overall profitability and whether demand remains strong.

Bull Confirmed If

If refining margins exceed $20 per barrel, it would confirm the bullish outlook for Valero's profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

If refining margins fall below $10 per barrel, it would indicate significant challenges for the company's earnings.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.63%

Historical Avg

±3.0%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a move of about 2.63%, suggesting that investors expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±2.6% while VLO has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

45.2%

Calls (172K)P/C Ratio: 0.61Puts (82K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Valero beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.37%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 3.02%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on refining margins and how they compare to last quarter.
2Management's outlook on gasoline demand for the upcoming months.
3Any commentary on operational efficiencies or cost management strategies.
4Insights into potential regulatory impacts on the refining industry.
5Discussion on capital expenditures and future growth plans.