Equity Profile

VLO

Valero Energy Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$87.9B

Jul23Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a major player in the oil and gas refining and marketing sector. With a market cap of $88 billion, the company is significant in the energy landscape, especially as global energy demands evolve and sustainability becomes a focal point for many investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of Valero's profitability and operational efficiency, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins directly impact Valero's profitability, reflecting the difference between crude oil prices and refined product prices.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VLO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+91.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.27%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Valero reported an EPS of $4.22, significantly beating expectations of $3.07, which reflects strong operational performance. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.51% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are generally optimistic about Valero's upcoming earnings, especially given its recent strong performance. However, the lack of specific guidance leaves room for uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Valero continues to outperform expectations, particularly in refining margins, it could see a strong positive reaction from the market.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to maintain its recent EPS growth or if refining margins decline, it could lead to a negative market response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a significant beat or miss could sway investor sentiment.

How have refining margins changed in the last quarter?

Refining margins impact overall profitability, and any significant changes could indicate future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Valero to capitalize on rising refining margins due to increased demand for gasoline and diesel.

Supporting Evidence

Valero's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational efficiency, suggesting it can maintain profitability even in volatile markets.

The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, which may not reflect the potential upside from strong refining margins.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision of earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching EPS and refining margins as indicators of Valero's future performance.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting declining profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.63%

Historical Avg

±3.0%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a relatively modest move, suggesting that investors may be anticipating a stable earnings report.

Options are pricing ±2.6% while VLO has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

45.2%

Calls (172K)P/C Ratio: 0.61Puts (82K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Valero beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.37%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction.

Miss

If Valero misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 3.02%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on refining margins and how they compare to last quarter.
2Any updates on operational efficiency improvements.
3Management's outlook on future demand for refined products.
4Insights into cost management strategies amid fluctuating crude prices.
5Any commentary on potential impacts from regulatory changes in the energy sector.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of Valero's profitability and operational efficiency, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins directly impact Valero's profitability, reflecting the difference between crude oil prices and refined product prices.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VLO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+91.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.27%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Valero reported an EPS of $4.22, significantly beating expectations of $3.07, which reflects strong operational performance. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.51% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are generally optimistic about Valero's upcoming earnings, especially given its recent strong performance. However, the lack of specific guidance leaves room for uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Valero continues to outperform expectations, particularly in refining margins, it could see a strong positive reaction from the market.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to maintain its recent EPS growth or if refining margins decline, it could lead to a negative market response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a significant beat or miss could sway investor sentiment.

How have refining margins changed in the last quarter?

Refining margins impact overall profitability, and any significant changes could indicate future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Valero to capitalize on rising refining margins due to increased demand for gasoline and diesel.

Supporting Evidence

Valero's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational efficiency, suggesting it can maintain profitability even in volatile markets.

The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, which may not reflect the potential upside from strong refining margins.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision of earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching EPS and refining margins as indicators of Valero's future performance.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting declining profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.63%

Historical Avg

±3.0%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a relatively modest move, suggesting that investors may be anticipating a stable earnings report.

Options are pricing ±2.6% while VLO has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

45.2%

Calls (172K)P/C Ratio: 0.61Puts (82K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Valero beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.37%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction.

Miss

If Valero misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 3.02%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on refining margins and how they compare to last quarter.
2Any updates on operational efficiency improvements.
3Management's outlook on future demand for refined products.
4Insights into cost management strategies amid fluctuating crude prices.
5Any commentary on potential impacts from regulatory changes in the energy sector.