Equity Profile

ADT

ADT Inc.

Consumer DiscretionarySpecialized Consumer Services$5.0B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

ADT Inc. is a leading provider of security and automation solutions for homes and businesses....

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

This metric indicates how well ADT is attracting new customers, which is vital for revenue growth.

N/A

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

ARPU helps assess how much revenue ADT generates from each subscriber, reflecting pricing power and customer retention.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

ADT Inc. is a leading provider of security and automation solutions for homes and businesses. As a part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, ADT plays a crucial role in the growing demand for smart home technology and security services, which are increasingly important to consumers.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ADT reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, surpassing expectations by 21.05%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.02% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for ADT's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors keenly watching subscriber metrics and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If ADT continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and effective customer acquisition strategies.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of slowing subscriber growth or rising churn could raise concerns about the company's long-term viability and market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current subscriber growth rate compared to previous quarters?

Subscriber growth is a key indicator of ADT's market performance and customer demand, which will heavily influence investor sentiment.

How has the churn rate changed in the last quarter?

Understanding changes in churn will provide insights into customer satisfaction and retention, critical for future revenue stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate ADT's ability to maintain subscriber growth due to its strong brand recognition and increasing demand for home security solutions.

Supporting Evidence

ADT has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Past performance shows that ADT has a 100% EPS beat rate, which could continue.

Key Risk

If subscriber growth exceeds 5%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus will be on how well ADT can maintain its subscriber base and manage customer satisfaction.

Bull Confirmed If

A subscriber growth rate exceeding 5% would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand for ADT's services.

Bear Confirmed If

A churn rate above 15% would confirm the bear case, signaling potential issues with customer retention.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.67%

Historical Avg

±7.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±12.7% while ADT has averaged ±7.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.6%

Calls (13K)P/C Ratio: 7.53Puts (303K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADT beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 0.39%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

Should ADT miss expectations, the stock could decline, potentially reflecting the average 1-day move of around 7.94% based on past performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on subscriber growth and retention strategies.
2Any changes in pricing strategies or service offerings.
3Management's outlook on market trends and competition.
4Insights into customer satisfaction and service reliability.
5Future guidance on revenue expectations and operational efficiency.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

ADT Inc. is a leading provider of security and automation solutions for homes and businesses....

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

This metric indicates how well ADT is attracting new customers, which is vital for revenue growth.

N/A

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

ARPU helps assess how much revenue ADT generates from each subscriber, reflecting pricing power and customer retention.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ADT reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, surpassing expectations by 21.05%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.02% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for ADT's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors keenly watching subscriber metrics and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If ADT continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and effective customer acquisition strategies.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of slowing subscriber growth or rising churn could raise concerns about the company's long-term viability and market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current subscriber growth rate compared to previous quarters?

Subscriber growth is a key indicator of ADT's market performance and customer demand, which will heavily influence investor sentiment.

How has the churn rate changed in the last quarter?

Understanding changes in churn will provide insights into customer satisfaction and retention, critical for future revenue stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate ADT's ability to maintain subscriber growth due to its strong brand recognition and increasing demand for home security solutions.

Supporting Evidence

ADT has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Past performance shows that ADT has a 100% EPS beat rate, which could continue.

Key Risk

If subscriber growth exceeds 5%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus will be on how well ADT can maintain its subscriber base and manage customer satisfaction.

Bull Confirmed If

A subscriber growth rate exceeding 5% would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand for ADT's services.

Bear Confirmed If

A churn rate above 15% would confirm the bear case, signaling potential issues with customer retention.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.67%

Historical Avg

±7.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±12.7% while ADT has averaged ±7.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.6%

Calls (13K)P/C Ratio: 7.53Puts (303K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADT beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 0.39%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

Should ADT miss expectations, the stock could decline, potentially reflecting the average 1-day move of around 7.94% based on past performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on subscriber growth and retention strategies.
2Any changes in pricing strategies or service offerings.
3Management's outlook on market trends and competition.
4Insights into customer satisfaction and service reliability.
5Future guidance on revenue expectations and operational efficiency.