Equity Profile

ADT

ADT Inc.

Consumer DiscretionarySpecialized Consumer Services$5.2B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

ADT Inc. is a leading provider of security and automation solutions for homes and businesses....

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

This metric indicates how well ADT is attracting and retaining customers, which is vital for revenue stability.

N/A

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

ARPU reflects the company's ability to monetize its subscriber base effectively, impacting overall profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

ADT Inc. is a leading provider of security and automation solutions for homes and businesses. Operating in the Consumer Discretionary sector, ADT plays a crucial role in enhancing safety and convenience for consumers, especially as demand for smart home technology continues to grow.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ADT reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, exceeding expectations by 21.05%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving investors with limited insights into overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on enhancing customer service and support.
Investment in technology to improve security solutions.
Commitment to expanding the subscriber base through marketing initiatives.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of ADT's Q2 2026 earnings report, especially given the company's consistent EPS beats in recent quarters. However, the lack of revenue guidance raises concerns about overall growth.

Bull Case

If ADT can demonstrate strong subscriber growth and improved ARPU, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show significant growth in subscribers or revenue, it may raise doubts about its competitive position in the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current subscriber growth rate compared to last quarter?

Subscriber growth is crucial for ADT's revenue and overall market position, and any slowdown could raise concerns.

How has the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) changed this quarter?

Changes in ARPU can indicate how well ADT is monetizing its customer base, impacting profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating ADT's ability to drive subscriber growth through enhanced service offerings and marketing efforts.

Supporting Evidence

ADT has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting potential for a surprise.

Recent trends in home security demand may not be fully reflected in current market expectations.

Key Risk

If subscriber growth exceeds 5% this quarter, it could challenge the current cautious market outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching subscriber metrics and ARPU as indicators of ADT's growth potential and competitive strength.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating a subscriber growth rate of over 5% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in subscriber growth or ARPU below previous levels would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.67%

Historical Avg

±7.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±12.7% while ADT has averaged ±7.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.6%

Calls (13K)P/C Ratio: 7.53Puts (303K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADT beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.39% on the day.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to a muted response, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.

Miss

If ADT misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.39%, raising concerns about its growth trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on subscriber growth and retention strategies.
2Any changes in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU).
3Insights into customer satisfaction and service enhancements.
4Details on new marketing initiatives aimed at attracting subscribers.
5Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the security industry.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

ADT Inc. is a leading provider of security and automation solutions for homes and businesses....

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

This metric indicates how well ADT is attracting and retaining customers, which is vital for revenue stability.

N/A

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

ARPU reflects the company's ability to monetize its subscriber base effectively, impacting overall profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.39%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on enhancing customer service and support.
Investment in technology to improve security solutions.
Commitment to expanding the subscriber base through marketing initiatives.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ADT can demonstrate strong subscriber growth and improved ARPU, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show significant growth in subscribers or revenue, it may raise doubts about its competitive position in the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current subscriber growth rate compared to last quarter?

Subscriber growth is crucial for ADT's revenue and overall market position, and any slowdown could raise concerns.

How has the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) changed this quarter?

Changes in ARPU can indicate how well ADT is monetizing its customer base, impacting profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating ADT's ability to drive subscriber growth through enhanced service offerings and marketing efforts.

Supporting Evidence

ADT has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting potential for a surprise.

Recent trends in home security demand may not be fully reflected in current market expectations.

Key Risk

If subscriber growth exceeds 5% this quarter, it could challenge the current cautious market outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching subscriber metrics and ARPU as indicators of ADT's growth potential and competitive strength.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating a subscriber growth rate of over 5% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in subscriber growth or ARPU below previous levels would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.67%

Historical Avg

±7.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±12.7% while ADT has averaged ±7.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.6%

Calls (13K)P/C Ratio: 7.53Puts (303K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADT beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.39% on the day.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to a muted response, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.

Miss

If ADT misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.39%, raising concerns about its growth trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on subscriber growth and retention strategies.
2Any changes in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU).
3Insights into customer satisfaction and service enhancements.
4Details on new marketing initiatives aimed at attracting subscribers.
5Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the security industry.