Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is a leading manufacturer of construction machinery and heavy transportation equipment....
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.
Revenue Growth
Revenue growth reflects demand for Caterpillar's products and services, which is vital for assessing market conditions.
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EPS Beat Streak
3Q
EPS Beat Rate
63%
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.63%
Avg Stock Reaction
+2.74%
In Q1 2026, Caterpillar reported an EPS of $5.54, exceeding estimates by 21.76%. The stock reacted positively, gaining nearly 10% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given Caterpillar's recent strong performance. However, uncertainty remains regarding overall market conditions and demand.
Bull Case
If Caterpillar continues to beat EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand in the construction sector, driving the stock higher.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about slowing demand and negatively impact the stock.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
N/AEPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth reflects demand for Caterpillar's products and services, which is vital for assessing market conditions.
Order Backlog
N/AA strong order backlog can indicate future revenue potential and customer confidence in Caterpillar's offerings.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What is the current order backlog and how does it compare to previous quarters?
The order backlog will provide insight into future revenue potential and customer demand, which is crucial for assessing growth.
Q2
What are the management's expectations for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?
Guidance on revenue growth will help investors understand the company's outlook in a potentially volatile market.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Caterpillar's ability to capitalize on infrastructure spending, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting Evidence
Caterpillar's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance.
The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting heightened expectations.
Historical trends show that Caterpillar often outperforms in favorable market conditions.
Key Risk
If order backlog exceeds expectations, it could significantly shift market sentiment.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it reflects broader economic conditions and demand for construction equipment.
Bull Confirmed If
A revenue growth rate of 10% or higher compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
Any revenue decline or guidance below market expectations would confirm the bear case.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±17.97%
Historical Avg
±4.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±18.0% while CAT has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
44.7%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
n=30Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of +0.6% (modestly positive historical bias).
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Caterpillar beats expectations, history suggests a positive reaction, potentially a +4.67% move, confirming strong demand.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see a muted response as investors weigh future risks.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average drop of -0.47%, raising concerns about demand.
Preparation
House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
3 buys·0 sells
Members
3
House + Senate
Est. Notional
$17,003.00–$80,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
Net buying
1 trade
Net buying
1 trade
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Jan 29, 2026 · disclosed Feb 15, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Dec 29, 2025 · disclosed Jan 16, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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ONEOK, Inc.
Traded Nov 18, 2025 · disclosed Dec 15, 2025
$1,001.00–$15,000.00