Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. (SBRA) is a real estate investment trust that focuses on acquiring and managing healthcare properties....
EPS (Earnings Per Share)
EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help investors gauge financial health this quarter.
Occupancy Rate
The occupancy rate of healthcare facilities is vital for revenue generation and reflects the demand for Sabra's properties.
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EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
50%
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.53%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.54%
In Q1 2026, Sabra reported an EPS of $0.37, slightly missing the estimate of $0.38. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.78% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Overall expectations are mixed as Sabra has shown a tendency to miss EPS estimates recently. Investors are looking for signs of improvement in occupancy rates and revenue stability.
Bull Case
If Sabra can beat EPS estimates and show improvement in occupancy rates, it could signal a recovery in demand for its healthcare properties, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates again and provides weak guidance on occupancy or revenue, it may raise concerns about the sustainability of its business model.
EPS (Earnings Per Share)
$0.38EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help investors gauge financial health this quarter.
Occupancy Rate
N/AThe occupancy rate of healthcare facilities is vital for revenue generation and reflects the demand for Sabra's properties.
Dividend Payout
N/AAs a REIT, the dividend payout is crucial for attracting income-focused investors and reflects the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What is the current occupancy rate of Sabra's properties?
Occupancy rates directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical metric for investors to assess the company's performance.
Q2
Will Sabra maintain or increase its dividend payout?
As a REIT, maintaining or increasing the dividend is essential for investor confidence and indicates financial stability.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Sabra to stabilize its occupancy rates, which could lead to improved earnings this quarter.
Supporting Evidence
Recent trends in healthcare demand suggest a rebound in occupancy for healthcare facilities.
Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting uncertainty that may not be fully captured in consensus estimates.
Key Risk
If occupancy rates show unexpected improvement, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on whether Sabra can stabilize its earnings and occupancy rates amid ongoing market challenges.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.38 or better, along with a positive update on occupancy rates, would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.37 and a decline in occupancy rates would support the bear case.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±16.56%
Historical Avg
±1.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±16.6% while SBRA has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
20.8%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Real Estate
n=30Fade rate: 4 of 12 (33%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Real Estate in the last 2 years. 8 of 12 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.9%, with a raw directional average of +1.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Sabra beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.37%, confirming a recovery narrative.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around +0.71%.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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